Red-bellied Woodpecker

Winter Trend: Increasing

Graph showing Red-bellied Woodpecker winter population trend in New Hampshire from 1987 to 2025, with model prediction and 95% confidence interval.

Red-bellied Woodpecker, 1987–2025.

 The dark purple line shows the trend over time predicted by our statistical model, while the shaded purple area shows where we are 95% confident the true trend lies. Gray points are the number of Red-bellied Woodpeckers actually observed in participants’ backyards, averaged per observer.

What’s the Story?

Over the past few decades, Red-bellied Woodpeckers have made a remarkable range expansion into New Hampshire. Prior to the early 2000s, they were considered rare here, but today they are regularly reported south of the White Mountains. Warmer winters and reforestation have likely helped this species move northward.

Our statistical analysis shows their remarkable and recent increase: a negative binomial regression shows a significant upward trend (β = 0.183 ± 0.009 SE, z = 20.62, p < 0.001).

This translates to reports of Red-bellied Woodpeckers increasing by about 20% per year, even when accounting for changes in the number of Backyard Winter Bird Survey participants over time.

Some researchers suggest that the widespread loss of elm trees to Dutch Elm Disease created opportunities for expansion by providing large dead trees with cavities suitable for nesting. The arrival of the invasive Emerald Ash Borer, which is decimating ash trees in New Hampshire, may also be benefiting this species by creating new foraging opportunities. Red-bellied Woodpeckers feed on insects found under tree bark.

Recent data suggest that their dramatic increase may be beginning to level off, with a possible plateau in recent years. We’ll continue to monitor this species closely, as such plateaus are often seen when range-expanding species reach the limits of suitable habitat.

Feeding Tips

  • Suet feeders are an excellent choice for attracting woodpeckers in winter.
  • Red-bellied Woodpeckers also visit feeders with black-oil sunflower seeds, peanuts, and mealworms.
  • In summer, they enjoy orange halves, just like Baltimore Orioles!

In Your Backyard

  • Red-bellied Woodpeckers are often found in or near forests. Backyards with large trees or that border wooded areas are more likely to attract them.
  • Watch for Red-bellied Woodpeckers climbing along tree trunks and large branches, probing the bark for food.
  • Keep large trees on your property to provide potential nesting habitat.

ID Tips

Red-bellied Woodpecker climbing on a birch tree

Female Red-bellied Woodpecker by Grace McCulloch.

Red-bellied Woodpeckers have a black-and-white barred back. The faint red wash on the belly (where the name comes from) is rarely visible. There is, however, always a red patch on the nape (back of the neck). The female is pictured above. The male has red on the top of the head too.

Look Alike Alert: Red-headed Woodpecker

Red-bellied Woodpeckers are sometimes mistaken for Red-headed Woodpeckers.

However, Red-headed Woodpeckers are very rare in New Hampshire, with only a few sightings each year. Be sure to double-check that the bird isn’t a Pileated or Red-bellied Woodpecker. If you think you’ve spotted a Red-headed Woodpecker, snap a photo and send it to us to confirm your rare sighting.

Red-headed Woodpecker perched on a tree.

Red-headed Woodpecker by Len Medlock.

Melanerpes carolinus

Understanding the Graph and Statistics

Observed Data (gray points):

The average number of birds counted per participant each year.

Model-Predicted Trend (dark purple line):

A line from a statistical model that estimates the overall trend in bird numbers over time, smoothing out year-to-year fluctuations.

95% Confidence Interval (shaded purple area):

The range around the predicted trend where we are 95% confident the true trend lies. Gray points inside this band indicate observations that are consistent with the predicted trend.

Other Stats You Might See in the Story:

  • β (slope) and SE (standard error): These numbers tell us how strongly and precisely the bird counts are changing each year.
  • p-value and z-value: These tell us whether the observed trend is statistically significant (i.e., very unlikely to be due to random chance). For example, a p-value less than 0.05 usually means a statistically significant trend in either direction.

The Takeaway: These graphs show how bird populations are changing over time. The model helps us see the overall trend and the confidence interval shows how certain we are about that trend.