Tufted Titmouse

Baeolophus bicolor

Winter Trend: Increasing

Graph showing Tufted Titmouse winter population trend in New Hampshire from 1987 to 2025, with model prediction and 95% confidence interval.

Tufted Titmice, 1987–2025.

The dark purple line shows the trend over time predicted by our statistical model, while the shaded purple area shows where we are 95% confident the true trend lies. Gray points are the number of titmice actually observed in participants’ backyards, averaged per observer.

What’s the Story?

Who doesn’t love a Tufted Titmouse? Believe it or not, there was a time when this species wasn’t found in New Hampshire at all. Tufted Titmice were originally a southern species, but their range has expanded northward, helped along by bird feeders that provided reliable food during cold winters.

The Tufted Titmouse is also one of the two species that launched this project! In 1967, NH Audubon began the “Cardinal–Tufted Titmouse Survey” to track the range expansion of both Northern Cardinals and Tufted Titmice into New Hampshire. The survey later evolved into the Backyard Winter Bird Survey we know today.

Our statistical analysis shows that increase has continued (albeit at a slower rate) in recent decades: a negative binomial regression shows a significant upward trend (β = 0.009 ± 0.002 SE, z = 5.513, p < 0.001).

This translates to reports of Tufted Titmice increasing by about 1% per year, even when accounting for changes in the number of Backyard Winter Bird Survey participants over time.

Tufted Titmice are adaptable birds, thriving in areas with tall deciduous trees but even a few trees in a city or suburb can provide good habitat. Their northward expansion has been limited by cold winters and they remain uncommon in northern Coos County.

Feeding Tips

  • Black oil sunflower seeds are a Tufted Titmouse favorite, though striped sunflower seeds and safflower are also good options.
  • Tufted Titmice will readily visit hanging tube feeders.

In Your Backyard

  • Look for Tufted Titmice in areas with mature deciduous trees.
  • They are often seen traveling in mixed flocks with Black-capped Chickadees, woodpeckers, and nuthatches.

ID Tips

A small gray bird with a crest.

Tufted Titmouse by Len Medlock.

Tufted Titmice are gray overall with some ruddy/orange on their sides. Look for the crest and black on the forehead.

Want to Learn More? Visit the State of the Birds!

Baeolophus bicolor

Understanding the Graph and Statistics

Observed Data (gray points):

The average number of birds counted per participant each year.

Model-Predicted Trend (dark purple line):

A line from a statistical model that estimates the overall trend in bird numbers over time, smoothing out year-to-year fluctuations.

95% Confidence Interval (shaded purple area):

The range around the predicted trend where we are 95% confident the true trend lies. Gray points inside this band indicate observations that are consistent with the predicted trend.

Other Stats You Might See in the Story:

  • β (slope) and SE (standard error): These numbers tell us how strongly and precisely the bird counts are changing each year.
  • p-value and z-value: These tell us whether the observed trend is statistically significant (i.e., very unlikely to be due to random chance). For example, a p-value less than 0.05 usually means a statistically significant trend in either direction.

The Takeaway: These graphs show how bird populations are changing over time. The model helps us see the overall trend and the confidence interval shows how certain we are about that trend.